Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.307292 1.525701 1.768929 2.059848 2.398373 2.779927 3.242750
2024-12-22 0.910990 1.187746 1.531012 1.987992 2.580617 3.323630 4.326987
2024-12-29 0.772203 1.089146 1.513459 2.122899 2.976289 4.129958 5.810743
2025-01-05 0.621668 0.934816 1.380935 2.062556 3.078498 4.538613 6.801254
2025-01-12 0.510164 0.810852 1.262871 1.991431 3.137517 4.874072 7.712375
2025-01-19 0.427485 0.713961 1.165806 1.929732 3.190774 5.193823 8.627221
2025-01-26 0.381539 0.666647 1.136436 1.966020 3.396823 5.769160 10.015372
2025-02-02 0.359964 0.655715 1.163109 2.095812 3.770857 6.660218 12.042347
2025-02-09 0.330781 0.626557 1.153546 2.159408 4.035568 7.393901 13.887648
2025-02-16 0.300800 0.591171 1.127315 2.187638 4.237302 8.036524 15.646066
2025-02-23 0.271336 0.552253 1.088795 2.186250 4.380780 8.585334 17.292544
2025-03-02 0.245212 0.516031 1.050251 2.178637 4.509084 9.117072 18.968237
2025-03-09 0.224199 0.487984 1.025551 2.198422 4.700952 9.809015 21.085239
2025-03-16 0.196397 0.441884 0.958442 2.121994 4.685437 10.083868 22.382788
2025-03-23 0.191223 0.444044 0.992498 2.265966 5.158371 11.433250 26.164078
2025-03-30 0.169796 0.406614 0.935845 2.201574 5.163035 11.776346 27.761817
2025-04-06 0.150264 0.370727 0.877776 2.125677 5.130504 12.031079 29.188801
2025-04-13 0.133825 0.339842 0.827048 2.059837 5.111996 12.313728 30.716672
2025-04-20 0.125689 0.328192 0.820114 2.098560 5.349724 13.223786 33.881776
2025-04-27 0.123867 0.332246 0.851722 2.237062 5.852331 14.831328 38.994271
2025-05-04 0.118187 0.325460 0.855441 2.304925 6.184467 16.059813 43.303319
2025-05-11 0.111076 0.313841 0.845283 2.335049 6.422079 17.078439 47.198136
2025-05-18 0.103169 0.298902 0.824453 2.333567 6.574588 17.894410 50.654838